Charlie Cook Quotes TSG Principal Thomas Gallagher

December 7, 2018

 Charlie Cook quotes TSG Principal Thomas Gallagher in recent article for The National Journal. You can find the article here


"Political economist and longtime Fed-watcher Tom Gallagher points out that, “You can try to forecast the economy, or you can look at what markets seem to be pricing in about the future, because markets know all you do about the economy, and then more.” Gallagher, a principal at The Scowcroft Group, adds that “when long-term interest rates fall below short-term rates, what’s called an inverted yield curve, recessions have reliably followed around a year and a half later. Right now the 10-year Treasury rate is just 0.15% above the 2-year Treasury rate, so it’s tantalizingly close to but not yet at the level that predicts a recession.”